Archive for November, 2014

Polling Matters podcast: Rise of the Greens

Posted in Politics, Polling Matters on November 24th, 2014 by Leo – Comments Off on Polling Matters podcast: Rise of the Greens

In this week’s edition, Keiran Pedley and I discuss the Green Party, their supporters and their prospects for the next election.

CORRECTION: In this episode, I said the Greens are 12 points down on Labour in Caroline Lucas’ constituency. That’s true, but Ashcroft’s poll asks a follow-up question, encouraging people to think about their constituency in particular. This puts the Labour lead at just 1 point. I suspect that’s a better gauge of how people are likely to vote, suggesting she’s in fairly strong position to keep her seat. Apologies.

5 years of this blog: my favourite 5 charts

Posted in Attitudes, Bad polling, Climate Sock, Energy sources on November 23rd, 2014 by Leo – Comments Off on 5 years of this blog: my favourite 5 charts

I’ve been writing this blog for five years.  Most grateful to anyone who’s bothered to read it and to everyone who’s re-posted it or used my findings elsewhere.

In the spirit of these things, here are my five favourite charts that I’ve produced over the years:

5. Most people don’t understand the word ‘progressive’ 

Words are useful when they help people understand things. The word ‘progressive’ has become code among politics people for left-wing, or perhaps centre-left, or perhaps liberal in general.

It seems more common in the US and perhaps there people understand it as meaning ‘left-wing’. They don’t here though.

Here, for most people it has no political meaning at all: it just means “someone I like”:

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4. Wind farms are really popular, even when they’re built nearby

On one level I sort of understand the Tory Party’s opposition to wind farms. I’m sure there are some people that viscerally hate them, maybe even majorities in some communities, and perhaps Tory policy wonks think they’re a bad investment.

But the way some senior Tories talk, it’s as if wind farms are as popular neighbours as paedophile collectives – particularly compared with how they talk about fracking. They seem to assume that wind farms are hated, and everyone knows they’re hated.

Which is odd, because this is what people think about potential local power sources:

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3. People no longer think the monarchy make Britain better

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Polling Matters podcast: how do you poll UKIP?

Posted in Politics, Polling Matters on November 21st, 2014 by Leo – Comments Off on Polling Matters podcast: how do you poll UKIP?

The second edition of Polling Matters, in which Keiran Pedley and I discuss the challenges of polling support for UKIP. Plus a rant about the YouGov Profiler and misunderstanding trends in polls.

Polling Matters podcast: Ed Miliband

Posted in Politics, Polling Matters on November 12th, 2014 by Leo – Comments Off on Polling Matters podcast: Ed Miliband

The first episode of a new podcast, Polling Matters, in which Keiran Pedley and I discuss politics and polling. This week we talk about Ed Miliband – looking at the recent Survation and YouGov polls about the Labour leaders and comparing him with other potential leaders.