In two previous posts, I looked at how we can use past polls and elections to shed light on what current polls tell us about the next election. Today, I’m publishing an update, on how to interpret polls one year before the election: less than a month from now.
The interesting bit
According to the historical trend, election results relate to polls 12 months before as:
Opposition lead at the election =
(0.5 x Opposition lead a year before the election) – 3.5pts
That is, on average, polling leads halve (whichever party is leading) and move 3.5pts in favour of the government in the 12 months before an election (the real-world logic of requiring these two steps isn’t obvious and there’s no suggestion they actually happen in this order – but it’s what the regression produces).
This means, a Labour lead of 6-8pts 12 months out would point towards a tie in vote share at the election – making Labour the largest party and probably just short of a majority:
Should you pay any attention to this graph?