What do the public think about climate change?

Posted in Climate Sock, Energy sources on October 14th, 2014 by Leo – Be the first to comment

I was recently asked to give a summary presentation of public opinion about climate change and energy.

Most of it will be familiar to regular readers, though may still be of interest:

 

 

 

Seven months to go, historical polls still point to a narrow Tory election lead, with Labour the largest party

Posted in Historical polls, Politics on October 1st, 2014 by Leo – 1 Comment

Seven months until the General Election it’s time for an update of my chart of what historical polls and votes can tell us about the election ahead.

The earlier posts are available here, including discussions of the methodology. As ever, I’m using Mark Pack’s brilliant spreadsheet of historical polls.

The new analysis suggests that:

Opposition lead at the election =

(0.6 x Opposition lead seven months before the election) – 4.3pts

According to UK Polling Report, Labour’s current lead is 4pts. This means the analysis suggests a Tory lead after the election of just under 2pts: probably not enough for a majority, and with Labour the largest party.

This is almost exactly the same prediction as from polls a year before elections. It is also similar to – though marginally better for the Tories than – the prediction from polls two years before elections.

But now focus on the elections in the area in the red box below: where the polls were narrow at this stage. In these cases there is a huge amount of variation in the results: from a healthy Opposition victory (’79) to a comfortable Government majority (’87).

So from where we are now, previous elections suggest either main party could build a majority-sized lead.

That said, the fact the polls have followed the historical trend for at least the last 17 months provides some evidence to support the model’s prediction of a very small Tory lead.

Health warnings

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Tory MPs vs public opinion on energy and climate change

Posted in Climate Sock on September 29th, 2014 by Leo – Be the first to comment

This was originally posted on Carbon Brief, on 11 September.

A new poll of MPs has found widespread doubts about climate science, particularly among Tory MPs.

The poll, conducted for PR Week by Populus and reported in the Guardian, found that 51% of MPs think that man-made climate change is “an established scientific fact”. Two in five think it is a theory that “has not yet been conclusively proved”, while nearly one in ten say man-made climate change is “environmentalist propaganda”.

The findings suggest that MPs have similar views on climate science to those of the general public. A poll in August 2013 by Opinium for Carbon Brief, with similar questions, found that 56% believe that climate change is happening and is caused by humans.

In fairness, the concept of "scientific fact" is a little shonk.

Polling 2b

But the new poll shows dramatic contrasts in attitudes of MPs of different parties. While 73% of Labour MPs think man-made climate change is a scientific fact, only three in ten Tory MPs say the same. Nearly one in five Tory MPs say they think it is purely propaganda.

Although Brass Eye did establish that some scientific facts do exist.The sample of Liberal Democrats is too small for meaningful analysis. While the sample of the other main parties is larger, it still gives a margin of error of around +/- 12pts for Tory MPs and +/- 13pts for Labour MPs. Nevertheless, the gap in the results is large enough to suggest that Tory MPs have views about climate science that are, on average, very different from those of the general public.

Mounting evidence

Such a level of doubt about climate science among Tories might appear surprising. When the Climate Change Act was passed in October 2008, only three Tory MPs voted against it.

But this is not the first polling evidence of such views among Tory MPs about energy and climate change. A separate poll of MPs, conducted in July 2014 by ComRes, found similar differences in opinions about renewable energy.

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This fracking poll finding is one of the least convincing I’ve ever seen

Posted in Bad polling, Energy sources on August 11th, 2014 by Leo – 5 Comments

A new poll has found over 3 times as many people support fracking as oppose it. That’s a reversal of previous polls, in which most people generally opposed fracking. So has there been a change in the public mood?

No.

Instead, Populus and UK Onshore Oil and Gas have published one of the most misleading poll findings I’ve ever seen.

Short of faking results or fiddling the weights or sample (which this poll doesn’t), there are two ways to get a poll to give the answers you want. You can ask a series of leading questions that get respondents thinking the way you want them to, then ask the question you’re really interested in. Or you can word the questions so respondents only see half the argument.

This poll does both.

The opening three questions are statements that form the basis of the argument for fracking. They’re phrased without any costs (free ponies for all), counter-arguments or alternatives:

  • The UK needs to invest more in a whole range of new infrastructure, including housing, roads and railways, airport capacity and new energy sources
  • The UK needs to use a range of energy sources to meet the country’s energy needs
  • Britain needs to be able to produce its own energy so it isn’t reliant on gas from other countries

Then comes the clincher. A question on fracking that’s 146 words long, describes the process with reassuring terms like “tiny fractures” and “approved non-hazardous chemicals”, and tells us that it could meet the UK’s natural gas demand for 50 years. No challenge to the data, no costs or consequences, no alternative energy sources.

This isn’t an attempt to find out what the public think about fracking. It’s message testing.

That’s what political candidates or businesses do before launching a campaign. They fire a load of messages at respondents to see how much support they could gain in a theoretical world where only their view is heard, and which arguments are most effective.

It’s a useful technique for finding out how people might respond to your arguments. But it’s not supposed to represent what people actually think now.

Except not only was this poll press released as if it shows what people currently think, it was reported as such by the BBC, Press Association and the Telegraph.

This is the kind of thing that destroys trust in polling. I can see why UKOOG wanted it, and I get that the journalists wanted a counter-intuitive story (though it’s a shame they didn’t question what they were given). But I’m surprised that a reputable pollster went for it.

TL;DR:

What do the Local Election results mean for national politics?

Posted in Politics on May 23rd, 2014 by Leo – Comments Off

After another good night for UKIP, with mixed fortunes for the three main parties, this guest post by election expert Keiran Pedley of the polling firm GfK looks at what today’s Local Election results mean for politics over the next year.

With Westminster keenly anticipating the European election results on Sunday and a flurry of sometimes seemingly contradictory local election results today we can be forgiven for asking ‘how much can we really tell from last night’s results?’ In many respects we won’t know for certain for a few days, once the results are fully digested and the media narrative settles down, but there are a few key themes emerging we can explore already.

UKIP breakthrough (again)

However you look at these results they are great news for UKIP. What makes them arguably more important than last year’s local election results (other than being closer to the next General Election), which though impressive were largely confined to Conservative Shire counties, is that UKIP can now genuinely say that they can take votes from each of the main political parties. Last night’s surge in support for UKIP, at the time of writing leaving them with approaching 90 new councillors, has seen them deny the Conservatives control of councils in Essex whilst making quite astonishing gains in Labour heartlands such as Rotherham.

Although this doesn’t alter the fact that they still take more votes off the Conservatives than Labour, it does provide them with continued momentum as they seek the holy grail of a Westminster seat (or two) at the General Election and gives Labour something to think about. Put simply, they are not going away any time soon.

Labour success in London

Equally as interesting as UKIP’s successes nationally has been Labour’s success in London. Labour were looking to make progress in outer London boroughs, areas key to Boris Johnson’s successive elections as Mayor and they have managed to do so.

Taking councils where there was no overall control such as Merton might have been expected but Labour’s win in Hammersmith and Fulham will provide a real shot in the arm as this was a flagship Conservative council where key national policies were often piloted. Losing here is a major blow to the Conservatives. Labour will also be looking to make progress in places like Croydon and Harrow, which contain marginal Westminster constituencies they need to win in 2015 to form a Government.

Prime Minister Miliband?

So with UKIP doing well and Labour making gains can Ed Miliband start measuring the curtains at Number 10? Sky News used last night’s results to project Labour as the largest party at next year’s General Election but just short of an overall majority. However, such comparisons are tricky because turnout is far higher at General Elections and voters will likely consider far more carefully the implication of their vote when it impacts who controls the economy and ultimately who is the next Prime Minister.

The reality is that for all of Labour’s success in London last night, the picture elsewhere is less conclusive. Ed Miliband does not yet feel like a man on course to be the next Prime Minister and his personal poll ratings support that. That said, the idea of a Labour / Liberal Democrat coalition in 2015 is very plausible, just perhaps not certain.

Looking forward

As the local election results are fully assessed, eyes will quickly turn to the announcement of the European election results on Sunday. Recent polls have suggested it is neck and neck between Labour and UKIP for first place. It will certainly be interesting to see if UKIP can win a national election; we shouldn’t forget that Labour has the resources and experience of fighting such elections which could be crucial in such a tight race.

If UKIP do win, the argument against having Nigel Farage in the leader debates at the General Election becomes quite unsustainable. We should expect politics to settle down as the summer draws near and focus shifts to Scotland and party conference season but what appears clear is that the era of four-party politics – for now at least – is well and truly upon us.

Have the floods finally got Britain worried about climate change?

Posted in Climate Sock on May 3rd, 2014 by Leo – Comments Off

This winter’s floods ­– eventually – brought climate change to the centre of UK politics for the first time since Cameron was hugging huskies. When they weren’t staring furiously at flooded villages, both Miliband and the Prime Minister linked the floods with climate change and warned of serious future threats.

But did the floods have any effect on public opinion about climate change? A piece by Ros Donald for Carbon Brief points to data that suggest they did – with big increases in the numbers saying climate change is one of the main issues facing Britain.

This form of question is probably the crucial test for opinion on climate change. For years, a consistent majority have agreed that climate change is real and a problem: when asked directly about it. But what matters more is whether many people think of climate change as a priority for action when compared with issues like jobs and the health service.

Ros points to two polls that show, following the floods, many more people are indeed now saying climate change is one of the main issues for the country.

A regular tracker by DECC found 22% saying climate change is one of the country’s top three challenges, up from 10% two years ago. I have some serious issues with this tracker – it’s overpriced, some of the questions are so badly written as to be unusable, other questions pointlessly measure every three months things that will change on a timescale of years at least – but this particular question is broadly fine.

Ros also spotted a YouGov issues poll that picked up a jump in concern about the environment: from 9% in late January to 23% in mid-February.

For the intersection of poll and climate change nerds, this is exciting stuff. Big shifts in public opinion don’t come around very often. Being around to see one is enough to make a guy like me nearly forget the dictum for enthusiasts that, in nearly all cases, most people are paying far less attention to the subject of your enthusiasm than you think they are.

So has there really been an awakening to the urgency of climate change? Maybe. But probably not really. Here’s why:

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12 months to go, historical polls suggest a knife-edge election result

Posted in Historical polls, Politics on April 9th, 2014 by Leo – 7 Comments

In two previous posts, I looked at how we can use past polls and elections to shed light on what current polls tell us about the next election. Today, I’m publishing an update, on how to interpret polls one year before the election: less than a month from now.

The interesting bit

According to the historical trend, election results relate to polls 12 months before as:

Opposition lead at the election =

(0.5 x Opposition lead a year before the election) – 3.5pts

That is, on average, polling leads halve (whichever party is leading) and move 3.5pts in favour of the government in the 12 months before an election (the real-world logic of requiring these two steps isn’t obvious and there’s no suggestion they actually happen in this order – but it’s what the regression produces).

This means, a Labour lead of 6-8pts 12 months out would point towards a tie in vote share at the election – making Labour the largest party and probably just short of a majority:

'79 and '87 had seriously odd 12 months before the elections

This would suggest Labour’s current poll lead – 4pts – points towards a narrow Tory win on vote share at the election, of around 1.5pts. Again, this would probably put Labour as the largest party.

Should you pay any attention to this graph?

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The polls that show we’ve all misunderstood the political impact of the Budget

Posted in Politics on March 27th, 2014 by Leo – 2 Comments

Occasionally it turns out nearly everyone’s wrong. Fortunately, I’m here with a spreadsheet to put us all right, like some kind of irritatingly pedantic superhero.

Last week, Osborne’s Budget revolutionised pensions. Immediately, the Tories narrowed the gap on Labour from around 4-5pts to around to 1-2pts.

The Tories’ poll boost was the product of a careful plan to target pensioners who’d switched to Ukip. Older people not only vote far more than young people, but they’re also Ukip’s strongest group, so are crucial for the Tories to regain. The growth in the Tories’ support reflected their focus on winning back their older former voters – and the success of that plan.

At least, so said political editors, analysts and commentators across the spectrum:

The odd thing is, this is not only untrue, it’s actually the opposite of what happened.

The Tories didn’t gain ground among over 60s after the Budget: Labour did. The age group that the Budget swung most towards the Tories was the under 25s.

This may be the most surprising poll result I’ve ever seen.

On the basis of the useful polling heuristic that anything interesting is probably wrong – Twyman’s Law – I’ve checked it with 8 YouGov polls (4 before the Budget, 4 after); 3 Populus polls (2 before, 1 after); and 2 Survation polls. They broadly tell the same story: since the Budget, the Tories have gained ground among younger people and Labour have held steady, or even won support, among older people.

The YouGov results, combining 8 polls to give some good sample sizes, are fairly typical:

I can see some logic for why people who’re already retired wouldn’t love the Budget. The pension changes help people who’re yet to retire, doing nothing for those who’re already retired.

Still. Firstly I’m surprised that the result has been an increase – at least relatively – in Labour’s support among older people (why would it? what have Labour done this week to earn it?). And secondly, I’m amazed that there’s been such a change among under-25s (how many of them are thinking about their retirement?).

The reality may be that these changes aren’t actually the result of rational policy calculation in response to the pension changes. Perhaps they’re more about the feeling people have had from the Tories projecting a sense of direction and accomplishment. I would also expect them to unwind within another week.

But it’s a reminder that the (near*) universal opinion about what’s going on in politics is sometimes completely wrong.

* It would be unfair not to point out that Survation did make this point earlier this week. It didn’t seem to have stopped everyone else getting it wrong.

The climate debate is changing: this is what the next fight will be about

Posted in Climate Sock, Media on February 16th, 2014 by Leo – 2 Comments

Listen carefully and you might hear the climate debate shifting. The floods may not have a dramatic effect on public opinion about climate change, but they have revealed what the next stage of political arguments might look like.

Most of the UK public have long thought that we need to act on climate change. Only about 1 in 7 people think climate change is some kind of hoax; the overwhelming majority think it’s a serious problem, if sometimes a bit exaggerated.

Of course you wouldn’t know that from the media. Particularly since Copenhagen and the UEA email release, much of the media debate about climate change has carried on as if doubt about its reality and severity are widespread. In general, the media haven’t been interested in other kinds of climate stories.

But with the UK floods that may now be changing. The usual denier voices are still given airtime, and they’re still claiming that climate change isn’t real, or isn’t manmade. But now they’re trying their next fallback: if this is climate change, we need to stop wasting money on cutting our emissions and focus on preparing the UK for what’s coming.

Nigel Lawson used it on the Today Programme; Tim Montgomerie, editor of Times Opinion, has been making the same case today:

If the media now lose interest in debates about whether or not climate change is real, this might be the next big fight.

There are at least three parts to the counter-argument:

The UK isn’t irrelevant

We’re accountable for only around 2% of the world’s emissions. If we shut down the country overnight it would have only a small direct effect on climate change. So, it’s argued, there’s no point us busting a gut to reduce our emissions, when what matters is what the most polluting countries do.

But it’s a straw man. No-one’s suggesting we can single-handedly stop dangerous climate change. The point is if global emissions are to be cut, those countries that can afford to cut their emissions need to do so. If the UK wasn’t pledging big emissions reductions, why should the rest of the EU do the same? And if the EU isn’t, how can we hope to persuade China to act?

Which leads to the next argument:

We haven’t failed to reduce emissions

Since 1990, emissions have fallen sharply in the EU: in France by 17%, in Germany by 24%, and in the UK by 29%. US emissions rose over that time, but since 2000 have fallen by 9%.*

China’s emissions are still rising, but even they are probably moving in the right direction. In ’09, out of all the wind power capacity installed globally, 35% was in China – making it the world’s third largest user of wind energy. This may partly be about cutting local pollution from coal plants, but in a world where everyone else is cutting their emissions, it will be hard for China not to follow.

Part of the blame for this perception of failure may lie at the door of climate campaigners. Every time a climate deal is slammed as a failure by an NGO, the impression is strengthened that nothing is being done. And so it becomes a bit easier for critics of all global deals to say we should stop wasting our time with these negotiations and start preparing for the worst.

And so the third, and most neglected part:

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Linking the floods with climate change – and why it’s important

Posted in Climate Sock on February 11th, 2014 by Leo – Comments Off

Perhaps I’m sensitive, but there doesn’t seem to have been much debate about whether the current UK floods are linked with climate change. The connection has appeared for a day or two but has never been the story for long.

I’m going to look at this in two ways: firstly, what it’s meant for public opinion, and secondly, why it matters.

When the media aren’t talking about an issue, it generally doesn’t get polled about – so we don’t have much data on opinion about the floods and climate change. But we can cobble together a few different polls and get some sense:

1)      People think the UK will suffer more flooding as a result of climate change

A Defra poll last year found people overwhelmingly think that flooding has got more common, and will continue to do so*.

2)      People tend to see weather extremes in general as climate change-related

The last Carbon Brief energy/climate change poll tested how far record-breaking weather of the last few years is seen as linked with climate change. It found just under half think they’re linked: a plurality but hardly decisive.

 

3)      These floods in particular haven’t really been linked with climate change

The only poll I know of asking whether people connect these floods with climate change, by YouGov, found a roughly even split, with slightly more saying they’re probably not linked.

This was done before the Met Office published their report making a link, which got a bit of coverage. But as Carbon Brief have shown, only a small proportion of news articles about the floods have mentioned climate change, so it would be surprising if opinion has changed hugely.

Why does it matter?

It’s contentious to say that climate campaigners should be declaring that these floods are the result of climate change.

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